Opening Bell - Issue 62
Research26 March 2026Copper
Prepare for the week with key data points and trends in the digital asset marketplace.
Opening bell | Issue #62 report highlights:
Bitcoin’s relationship with equities is more nuanced than simple correlation. The driver is the equity risk premium (ERP) or the gap between what equities yield versus risk-free bonds. When that gap is compressed, i.e. equities become more expensive relatives to bonds, capital rotates into Bitcoin.
Since 2020, every single month with a compressed ERP produced a positive Bitcoin return over the following 12 months. Right now, the nominal ERP is negative, meaning equities yield less than government bonds.
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